Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:KPTI) shares are falling 16% after the biotech firm’s Phase 2 trial evaluating Selinexor in Older Patients with Relapsed Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) (SOPRA) has revealed the drug failed to achieve statistical significant in overall survival (OS).
For H.C. Wainwright analyst Shaunak Deepak, this misstep yields a “mixed impact” on his model, as he believes the “AML loss is largely offset by reduced safety overhang for selinexor.” On the heels of the Phase 2 miss, the analyst reiterates a Buy rating on shares of KPTI while trimming the price target from $15 to $14, which represents a just under 17% increase from where the stock is currently trading.
Deepak notes, “Though Karyopharm does not plan to pursue selinexor development in AML, the company expects investigatorsponsored trials (ISTs) to continue to evaluate selinexor in combination with other agents in earlier lines of AML therapy.”
There is one crucial silver lining for the analyst: the drug’s safety profile is actually better than anticipated. “Selinexor safety in advanced AML patients looks better than expected. Karyopharm noted that selinexor-treated patients experienced lower rates of sepsis (4.9% v. 6.1%) and febrile neutropenia (14.7% v. 36.4%) than patients receiving physician’s choice regimens,” underscores Deepak, who adds, “We see this as a key win for selinexor, as safety concerns around sepsis have plagued selinexor development, and clinical trial experience has shown sepsis incidence to be most pronounced in AML.”
Ultimately, “we are removing the AML indication from our selinexor estimates, but increasing the probabilities of success for selinexor in multiple myeloma (MM) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), as the SOPRA data reduce lingering concerns around selinexor’s safety profile,” the analyst surmises.
According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, one-star analyst Shaunak Deepak is ranked #3,565 out of 4,513 analysts. Deepak has a 42% success rate and faces a loss of 2.2% in his annual returns. However, when recommending KPTI, Deepak earns 68.4% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics indicate KPTI as a Buy. Out of 2 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, both analysts are bullish on Karyopharm stock. With a return potential of nearly 41%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $17.00.