FBR Remains Positive on Novavax, Inc. (NVAX); Here’s Why

On October 7th, Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) announced that it had rescheduled its annual investor meeting from tomorrow, October 11th and moved it to Wednesday, November 9th, and investors are clearly not pleased with the postponing. Shares closed down 4% Friday on back of the news, a clear reflection of negative investor attitude.

Many were looking forward to the analyst meeting with great anticipation to delve deeper into more in-depth details on the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine RESOLVE Phase III trial in older adults, aged 60 and above, with topline results announced last month. The data read-out revealed that the pre-specified primary and secondary efficacy objectives were not met.

Despite the meeting hold-up and adverse investor sentiment, FBR analyst Vernon Bernardino reiterates an Outperform rating on shares of NVAX with a $12 price target, which represents a nearly 567% increase from where the stock is currently trading.

The analyst asserts, “We think that NVAX did the right thing in their fiduciary responsibility to disclose results early as they were material to making an investment decision. However, given the volume of data collected in RESOLVE, a study designed to support a Biologics Licensing Application (BLA), we had thought that holding the event and having detailed data ready for presentation on October 11 was aggressive. We look for a detailed analysis of biological samples to show a Phase III clinical trial with a prime boost strategy (consecutive annual vaccination) may be used to generate data that support a BLA.”

“We think the RESOLVE trial’s expeditious initiation demonstrated the FDA’s support of Novavax’s RSV F vaccine in the elderly adult population,” Bernardino concludes.

As usual, we recommend taking analyst notes with a grain of salt. According to TipRanks, analyst Vernon Bernardino is ranked #4,072 out of 4,183 analysts. Bernardino has a 26% success rate and faces a loss of 15.4% in his annual returns. When recommending NVAX, Bernardino loses 30.3% in average profits on the stock.

TipRanks analytics indicate NVAX as a Buy. Based on 8 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 2 rate a Buy on NVAX, while 6 maintain a Hold. The 12-month price target stands at $7.17, marking a 298% upside from where the shares last closed.screen-shot-10-10-16-at-03-17-pm

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