Cowen Dives In on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Following Meeting with Management


Cowen analyst Ritu Baral has recently attended a meeting with ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) management to discuss the maturing Nuplazid launch in PDP as well as plans for the upcoming phase 3 pimavanserin ADP trial and CTAD phase 2 ADP data presentation.

Baral wrote, “Management believes the $105-115MM guidance for 2017 Nuplazid revenue is “appropriately aggressive” and achievable, but also appeared comfortable with our FY2017 estimate of $118.4MM, which we find encouraging given their historically conservative stance on consensus. We think the addition of the 25 LTC sales reps in early Q2 has translated quickly and meaningfully into increased penetration into the market segment, and we would expect to see growth in this segment.”

“For competitive reasons, management has not disclosed specific details yet around the design of the pivotal Ph3 trial of pimavanserin in Alzheimer’s Disease Psychosis, but noted to us that FDA largely accepted the trial design as proposed during their summer end-of-Ph2 Type B meeting. We expect multiple psychosis scales will be assessed in the trial, not limited to the NPI-NH (which was the primary endpoint in the Ph2 trial). ACAD will likely hold a conference call to discuss trial design following initiation, and will address the rationale and supportive data behind their final primary endpoint selection (which we do not expect to be the NPI-NH subscale),” the analyst continued.

Baral rates ACAD an Outperform with price target of $46.00, which implies an upside of 44% from current levels.

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Ritu Baral has a yearly average return of 14.4% and a 49% success rate. Baral has a 1.6% average return when recommending ACAD, and is ranked #157 out of 4618 analysts.

Out of the 10 analysts polled in the past 12 months, 8 rate Acadia stock a Buy, while 2 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 35.0%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $43.13.

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