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This Analyst Now Calls for Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) to Yield a Whopping 413% Upside Following Favorable Trial Vaccine Efficacy

Wall Street is paying attention to FBR's George Zavoico's surge in enthusiasm on Novavax's prospects.


Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) stock has rapidly gained almost 47% in value in the span of a day. What has fanned investor excitement on the Street?

The biotech player’s RSV F vaccine designed for maternal immunization to protect newborn infants proved its efficacy to be in the 45% to 100% threshold of success by the FDA’s informational analysis. With Novavax’s ongoing Phase 3 Prepare trial now pointing to a positive outcome, one upbeat voice on the Street is leading the bullish charge today.

FBR analyst George Zavoico caught word through the company’s 8-K filing with the SEC on Monday via a presentation made at an investor conference in California.

In reaction, the analyst is massively hiking his confidence backing this stock, reiterating a Buy on NVAX while dialing up the price target in a big way from $2.25 to $10, which implies a close to 413% upside from current levels. (To watch Zavoico’s track record, click here)

Wall Street has certainly taken notice, and as such, shares have gone flying through the roof today.

“We learned that the objective of the informational analysis allowed by the FDA was to determine if the trial vaccine efficacy was greater than 45%, a threshold that we think would translate into a successful Phase III trial and a commercially viable vaccine. The trial results to date were unblinded by an independent data safety monitoring board (DSMB). The results showed that the incidence of serious lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) due to an RSV infection in newborn infants whose mothers were immunized was at least 45% lower than in infants born by mothers who were not infected, a statistically significant difference. In our view, this result increases our confidence in a successful outcome of the Prepare trial,” Zavoico asserts.

Now betting on a recommendation from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), the analyst concludes: “Due to the potential risk to infants posed by an RSV infection, we believe this vaccine will be recommended for standard use by ACIP within several months after its regulatory approval. If so, then we expect a high proportion of pregnant women will be immunized by this vaccine.”

TipRanks shows a far more cautious Wall Street when it comes to Novavax’s biotech market opportunity, with 2 out of 3 analysts polled in the last 3 months walking on the sidelines and only one bull taking the gamble on the stock. Yet, when judging these analysts’ expectations, it looks like an analyst consensus pointing to optimism, as the 12-month average price target of $2.15 boasts return potential of almost 13%.