Bret Jensen

About the Author Bret Jensen

Editor for The Biotech Forum & The Insiders Forum; two of the most subscribed to services available via SeekingAlpha's MarketPlace. Long time Real Money Pro contributor. Biotech investor for a quarter century and frequent speaker on the topic at investment conferences like the MoneyShow and in interviews. For FREE weekly investment reports on small, attractive biotech stocks just register at To get my articles and instablogs as soon as they are published, please hit my profile and become a real-time follower.

4 Notable Analyst Calls in the Biotech Space: Cymabay (CBAY), Opko (OPK), Chimerix (CMRX), Intec (NTEC)

It has been an ugly day for the markets in the past few days.  The biotech sector has been particularly hard hit.

For those looking for some possibilities to buy the ‘dip’, here are some small biotech concerns garnering positive analyst support today.

Oppenheimer has reissued its Buy rating and $20 price target on Cymabay Therapeutics (CBAY).  Here is the synopsis behind that call:

Two late-breaking presentations on CBAY’s seladelpar for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) will be featured on Nov. 12 at Francisco, CA. We believe these presentations contain important data that should differentiate seladelpar from existing therapies by potentially demonstrating: 1) improved efficacy, and 2) superior safety and tolerability. Seladelpar efficacy of ~60-70% compares favorably to ~50% based on 52-week responder rates (albeit from different trials which may not be comparable). Seladelpar decreases pruritus (itching) by 50-55% at 26 weeks from baseline compared to Ocaliva which does not decrease pruritus. We expect seladelpar to launch in late 2021 with a competitive label and forecast ~$400M peak risk-adjusted PBC revenues in 2026. Please see details and exhibits below.

Opko Health (OPK), which has been a controversial stock of late, has its Buy rating and $7 price target reiterated today by Barrington.  Here is the reasoning behind Barrington’s view:

We know that management received several questions regarding the recent news that the SEC has launched an investigation into the trading of certain low‐priced securities, and that CEO and Chairman Dr. Phil Frost and OPKO were among the investors whose activities are now under SEC review. The general thrust of the investigation seems to involve allegations of “pump and dump” stock trading. We simply do not have enough information to make any kind of high conviction call on the ultimate outcome of this investigation, but we can say that both Dr. Frost and OPKO have a long history of making investments in smaller companies. In the case of OPKO (and to the best of our knowledge), not a dollar of investment that the company has made in any of the trading activity being examined by the SEC has ever been monetized

Next, Chimerix (CMRX) has its Buy rating and $10 price target maintained at H.C. Wainwright today.  Here is how they get to that bogey:

We base our $10 price target on probability-adjusted revenue forecasts for brincidofovir in AdV, smallpox and multi-viral prevention. We use the net present value of our revenue forecast through 2026, apply a 15% POS for brincidofovir in AdV and other viruses, a 35% POS for brincidofovir in smallpox, a 4x price/sales multiple, value the early stage pipeline at $1.56/share and 2Q18 fully diluted net cash of $4.08/share to arrive at our $10 price target. Our P/S multiple of 4x is in line with Chimerix’s peers that range between 2-5x.”

Finally, Intec Pharma (NTEC) gets maintained as a Buy with a $8.50 price target at Roth Capital.  Roth’s analyst ‘cites a favorable risk/reward for Accordion Pill – Carbidopa/Levodopa, or AP-CD/LD, the company’s Phase 3 Parkinson’s treatment‘ and states ‘key catalysts for shares include PK data in 4Q18 and pivotal data in mid-2019‘.


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