Analyst Sees Compelling Opportunity in Therapeutics MD (TXMD) Stock As Women’s Meds Grow in Popularity

Cantor’s analyst Louise Chen assumes coverage on pharmaceutical company TherapeuticsMD (TXMD) with an Overweight rating and price target of $27, showing an upside of about 457% from where the stock is currently trading. Chen believes the company’s three vaginal health medications are underappreciated and peak sales could exceed modest expectations as the three drugs are targeting unmet needs women have. Moreover, Chen expects upwards earnings revisions to drive the stock higher once reimbursement is solidly in place for the products. (To watch Louise Chen’s track record, click here)

Imvexxy, the company’s bio-identical vaginal estrogen product is already on the market for the treatment of moderate-to-severe dyspareunia, which is difficult or painful intercourse. The drug is getting about 2.2 fills per patient, which is higher than the average 1.7 fills other competing drugs get. “Based on our diligence we think reimbursement for Imvexxy could exceed expectations, and that sales will pick up sooner than expected in 2019+,” Chen said.

Bijuva is another TXMD drug and is the first and only FDA approved hormone therapy of bio-identical estradiol in combination with bio-identical progesterone for the treatment of moderate-to-severe vasomotor symptoms (or hot flashes) that come from menopause. “This drug addresses a market of 15MM-20MM annual Rxs (compounded bio-identical hormones and the separate estradiol and progesterone hormones). Also, we think Bijuva should significantly improve the net margin per script, for compounding pharmacies, with third party reimbursements and lower their legal and regulatory costs/risks. The solubilization of estradiol and progesterone has led to significant improvements in the number of secondary endpoints seen with Bijuva. These are normally only seen with transdermal estradiol products and oral progesterone products. These features suggest that Bijuva could obviate the need for using separate products or compounded products,” Chen added.

Lastly is Annovera, the first long-acting prescription birth control that is controlled by the patient, without a need for a procedure and is also reversible. The pregnancy-protection lasts for one year and the Affordable Care Act should make it so that there’s no out-of-pocket cost to the patient. “According to TXMD, there is interest to study this product as first-line therapy for both endometriosis and fibroids. If TXMD can launch this drug by 2Q19/3Q19, the pick up in sales could exceed modest expectations,” Chen remarked.

TipRanks did a check and found every other analyst on Wall Street is in agreement with Chen over TXMD stock. Out of seven, not one is sidelined or bearish on the stock, with a Strong Buy consensus rating. The consensus price target of $16 shows an upside of 291.75%. (See TXMD’s price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)

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