Wall Street Consensus Still Bearish on Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) Despite Earnings Beat

Famous hamburger chain Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:SHAK) posted second quarter earnings results on August 10 after market close, beating the Street’s expectations on both the top and bottom line. The stock proceeded to surge approximately 8% in after-hours trading as a result.

Highlights from the report include $0.09 adjusted earnings per share on $48.5 million in revenue, crushing the Street’s estimates of $0.03 earnings per share on $42.8 million in revenue. Same store sales were also better than expected, increasing 12.9% in the second quarter. Average weekly sales rose 7% from the same quarter a year prior to $102,000.

Additionally, the company raised its full year revenue outlook from a range of $161-$165 million to $171-$174 million. Shake Shack also raised its same-store sales outlook to mid-to-high single digits from low-to-mid single digits.

The company had previously forecast to open 10 new company-owned locations in the United States earlier this year. Now, Shake Shack has raised its forecast and expects to open 12 new locations in the U.S. by the end of the year and 12 locations per year starting in 2016.

Randy Garutti, Shake Shack CEO, stated, “As we execute our strategic growth plan, we continue to identify favorable development opportunities and we have therefore added two new Shacks to our development schedule, raising our previous guidance to 12 new domestic company-operated Shacks for 2015. Looking ahead to 2016 and beyond, we now expect to open at least 12 domestic company-operated Shacks annually.”

Last month, both John Glass of Morgan Stanley and Karen Holthouse of Goldman Sachs downgraded their ratings on Shake Shack.

Morgan Stanley’s John Glass downgraded his rating on Shake Shack from Equal Weight to Underweight with a price target of $38 on July 7, citing the stock as overvalued. He noted, “While fundamentals near term are likely to remain strong, that outcome is likely already more than compensated for in current valuation.” To put it bluntly, the analyst stated, “Any way you stack it… Shake Shack is expensive.”

Overall, John Glass has a 72% success rate recommending stocks and a +14.1% average return per recommendation when measured over a one-year horizon and no benchmark.

Karen Holthouse of Goldman Sachs also downgraded her rating on Shake Shack from Neutral to Sell on July 9, citing the “potential for incremental selling pressure associated with the expiration of the lockup,” which occurred on July 29.

On average, Karen Holthouse has a 75% success rate recommending stocks and a +11.8% average return per recommendation when measured over a one-year horizon and no benchmark.

Out of 5 analysts polled by TipRanks within the last 3 months, 3 analysts are neutral on Shake Shack and 2 are bearish. The average 12-month price target for Shake Shack is $44.25, marking a 37.36% potential downside from where the stock last closed. On average, the all analyst consensus for Shake Shack is Moderate Sell.

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