Roth Capital Provides Input Into Alcobra’s Fragile X Program; Keeps $40 Price Target


In a research report issued today, Roth Capital analyst Debjit Chattopadhyay reiterated a Buy rating on Alcobra Ltd (NASDAQ:ADHD) with a price target of $40.00, following the recent failure of Roche’s most advanced clinical program in Fragile X.

Chattopadhyay wrote, “Roche disclosed that both of its mid/ late-stage studies for RG7090 failed to hit the primary and secondary goals. Recall that Alcobra’s Fragile X program targets the 5- HT2B receptor, aims to improve cognitive function, and is clearly differentiated. Additionally, we believe some recent assertions regarding urine color changes in patients being treated with MDX do not appear to have a scientific basis and we anticipate a positive readout from the ongoing phase 3 study . Differentiated mechanism of action: Roche disclosed that both of its mid/ late-stage studies for RG7090 failed to hit the primary and secondary goals. The primary endpoint in the study was change in Anxiety Depression and Mood Scale (ADAMS) total score over 12 weeks. Key secondary endpoints included multiple behavioral and social responsiveness scores. Roche’s failure adds a long list of failed studies targeting the mGluR5 pathway . Note that Alcobra’s Metadoxine is a serotonin 5-HT2B receptor antagonist, and displays a dose-dependent, reversible reduction in basal transmission and enhancement of GABAergic inhibitory transmission. This is likely to have a more profound impact on the cognitive functions in patients with Fragile X. Importantly, the primary endpoint for the ongoing phase 2 study utilizes the Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) Rating Scale (ADHD RS-IV), which has been extensively validated in multiple pivotal studies in ADHD patients.”

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Debjit Chattopadhyay has a total average return of 4.3% and a 40.7% success rate. Chattopadhyay has a -15.2% average return when recommending ADHD, and is ranked #1433 out of 3274 analysts.

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