Oppenheimer analysts are maintaining mixed ratings on electric car Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and search giant Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) into the 3Q earnings reports. Let’s take a closer look:
Tesla Motors Inc
In anticipation of Tesla’s transition to reporting GAAP revenue and ahead of third-quarter figures due out tomorrow, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch is updating his model for historical GAAP revenue results. Rusch’s 3Q16 revenue estimate is now $1,866.3M (was $2,327.4M). Rusch reiterated a Perform rating on TSLA, without providing a price target.
Rusch wrote, “Given the potential confusion around TSLA’s anticipated reporting changes, we are publishing an updated model to help investors navigate these adjustments. The critical change in proforma revenue is the recognition of lease revenue not total vehicle value. Due to high percentage of deferred revenue (~35%), this change also materially changes EPS. We expect cash flow estimates to remain intact. We also believe the new reporting structure highlights the importance of TSLA’s lease partners and risks around TSLA’s used vehicle market whether it is older vehicles cannibalizing new sales or the brisk pace of innovation limiting interest in older vehicles. While used Tesla’s have held value well to date, we view the end of lease vehicle strategy as a critical variable for future cash needs.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Colin Rusch has a yearly average return of 8.3% and a 47% success rate. Rusch has an 88.9% average return when recommending TSLA, and is ranked #425 out of 4190 analysts.
Out of the 26 analysts polled by TipRanks, 9 rate Tesla Motors stock a Buy, 10 rate the stock a Hold and 7 recommend a Sell. With a return potential of 26%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $254.81.
Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein remains bullish on Alphabet ahead of its third-quarter earnings release on October 27. Helfstein reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock, with a price target of $970, which represents a potential upside of 17% from where the stock is currently trading.
Helfstein stated, “On the positive side: 1) US retail sales remains healthy; 2) we expect moderate ad spend increase in Asia/Europe/LatAm; 3) share gains from YHOO/ MSFT; and 4) YouTube usage remains strong. Additionally, we believe other income should continue to be EPS-accretive, driven by capital market gains/hedging. Lastly, we believe investor sentiment is greater in FB & AMZN, setting up more attractive near-term risk-reward.”
“We believe 3Q:16 consensus appears conservative, given healthy fundamental trends and accelerating monetization. Valuation modestly above historical average (2008-to-date), and could continue to expand on upbeat tone during earnings call, less bullish sentiment by tech investors and potential new business opportunities (Cloud/IoT/AI). Estimates unchanged,” the analyst concludes.
According to data compiled by TipRanks.com, analyst Jason Helfstein has a yearly average return of 9% and a 57% success rate. Helfstein has a 11.1% average return when recommending GOOGL, and is ranked #151 out of 4190 analysts.
The overwhelmingly majority of analysts say Alphabet is a “Buy.” The average forecast is for the stock to hit $949 in the coming months, according to TipRanks.