Nektar Therapeutics: Roth Capital Sees 40% Probability Of Success In NKTR-102 Phase 3 Trial
In a research report issued today, Roth Capital analyst Debjit Chattopadhyay maintained a Buy rating on Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR) with a $21 price target, which implies an upside of 26% from current levels.
Chattopadhyay wrote, “Wholly-owned NKTR-102 will report phase 3 data during 1Q15. The phase 3 is comparing NKTR-102 to Treatment of Physicians Choice (TPC), which includes eribulin. Typical overall survival ranges from seven to 10.1 months, which is increased by 2.5 to three months with eribulin. Limited use of eribulin in the TPC cohort could positively impact outcome, in our view. We have modest expectations heading into the data, but If successful, NKTR-102 has the potential to become a $600M+ cytotoxic.”
The analyst added, “We are attributing 40% probability of success to the BECON study. NKTR-102 is an active cytotoxic with non-overlapping toxicity profile. This could cause an interesting dilemma for regulators if the BECAON study OS is comparable but not superior to TPS. A non-inferior single-agent with lower rates of neutropenia and neuropathy might be approvable especially in the third-line setting, in our view.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Debjit Chattopadhyay has a total average return of -0.4% and a 54.5% success rate. Chattopadhyay has a 23.5% average return when recommending NKTR, and is ranked #2583 out of 3388 analysts.