Needham Sets Expectations On Gilead Sciences Ahead Of Earnings

Needham’s healthcare analyst Alan Carr weighed in this morning with a few insights on Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), as the company is scheduled to report its financial results on Tuesday, February 3 after the market close. The analyst rates the stock a Buy with a price target of $120.

Carr noted, “We are revising our 4Q14 WW Sovaldi and Harvoni estimates to $1.90B (was $1.70B) and $1.28B (was $0.97B), respectively, based on IMS/Symphony Rx data. Our new 2014 product sales estimate is $23.4B (was $22.9B). We acknowledge reduced visibility ex-U.S. and believe there is room for upside surprise to our conservative ex-U.S. Sovaldi estimates. Our new 4Q14 total revenue and product sales estimates are $6.23B (was $5.72B) and $6.15B (was $5.65B), respectively. Our new 4Q14 non-GAAP EPS estimate is $2.01 (was $1.78).”

The analyst continued, “Harvoni was approved in Oct 2014 in the U.S. and Nov 2014 in the E.U. Uptake according to IMS/Symphony data has been strong, exceeding that of the Sovaldi launch last year. Our 2015 WW Harvoni estimate is $11.44B. Given superior profile relative to other agents, including Viekira Pak, we expect the drug to hold a dominant share of the market. We expect real-world efficacy and safety data to be generally supportive of Harvoni. Despite recent concerns, payer reimbursement risk appears to be somewhat modest. Gilead has guided for addition of GT3 pts and a 12-wk tx regimen for cirrhotic pts to the Harvoni label later this year.”

Gilead Sciences, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines for the treatment of life threatening diseases in North America, South America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. 

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