Aegerion: Deutsche Bank Questioned Management’s Ability To Execute
In a research report issued today, Deutsche Bank analyst Robyn Karnauskas downgraded shares of Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AEGR) to Hold from Buy and reduced her price target to $26 (from $58), which still represents a potential upside of 14% from where the stock is currently trading.
Karnauskas explained, “The co missed Q3 Juxtapid revs by $5M ($44M vs. $49M consensus) and decreased guidance significantly to $150-160M from $180-200M. We are changing our numbers to the most conservative. We now assuming ’15 sales of Juxtapid at $199 (vs. $323M prior) and peak WW sales of Juxtapid in adult pts at $300M (down from $771M). We have also cut the probability of success in Peds and Japan to 50% and 25% respectively (down from 85% and 50%). Due to questions about mgmt’s ability to execute and our lowered assumptions we are downgrading our rating to a HOLD.”
The analyst added, “During the call, management provided no updates as to what will be done differently aside from revising forecasts. We question how they plan on turning around these negative trends (especially the higher than projected pt discontinuation rates). We do not see the investment in the commercial team paying off (e.g., nurse educators, dieticians, etc.). We do not see management assessing the true impact of PCSK9 inhibitors, launching next year. Finally, we do not see consistent sales from Brazil, one of the key ex-US markets. The co could also not provide us any assurances as to why their application in Sao Paulo was rejected nor how they plan to handle the appeal.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Robyn Karnauskas has a total average return of 13.5% and a 73.4% success rate. Karnauskas has a -34.2% average return when recommending AEGR, and is ranked #136 out of 3354 analysts.