Louise Chen at Cantor is out today with a fresh research note on shares of Amarin Corporation (NASDAQ:AMRN), after the drug maker posted two updates regarding its financial guidance and REDUCE-IT study.
Specifically, the company has lowered its product revenue guidance for 1Q18 from $45MM-$48MM to ~$43MM. With respect to full year 2018 net product revenue expectations, the company continues to believe that it is on track to achieve product revenue of at least $230MM.
With respect to the REDUCE-IT study, the company reported that greater than 97% of patients who are alive and active in the REDUCE-IT study have either completed their final visit or are scheduled to complete their final visit in the coming weeks with work ongoing to schedule the remaining patients for their final study-related visits. This progress is consistent with the company’s objective of reporting top-line results from this important study before the end of Q3 2018. AMRN also announced today that REDUCE-IT is estimated to have reached the onset of the targeted 1,612 primary major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) specified in the study design.
Chen commented, “We have lowered our 1Q18 sales estimate from $45MM to $43MM given today’s update from AMRN. FactSet consensus is at $45.7MM, but we expect that number to come down following the company’s press release this morning. The update to our financial model did not change our 1Q18 or 2018 numbers.”
“We continue to believe that AMRN’s Vascepa can help lower deaths and the cost of care for a large number of patients with high triglycerides (TG) levels. This is still underappreciated, in our view. Therefore, we think a greater marketing effort and positive results from the REDUCE-IT study in 2018 should drive upwards earnings revisions to levels not reflected in consensus numbers, and the stock higher,” the analyst continued.
As such, Chen reiterates an Overweight rating on Amarin shares, with a price target of $10, which implies an upside of 216% from current levels. (To watch Chen’s track record, click here)