As Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE:UA) underwent a distribution of a new class of stocks, and PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE:PEP) tries to reverse the trend after two quarters of underperformance, two analysts revise their models and estimates for both companies. Let’s take a look.
Under Armour, Inc.
A year after its announcement, UA began trading its Class C shares last Friday. The stock has no voting merit and thus preserves the company’s CEO to retain a majority vote. The distribution of the stocks also ended up in a 2-for-1 stock split for existing shareholders. Baird analyst Jonathan Komp revises his model and price target to reflect this addition.
The analyst views the addition of these shares merely as an internal change in the company. He states, “No change in our operating assumptions, and we continue to view the risk-reward on UA favorably based on near-term operating momentum and favorable long-term growth prospects.” Regarding the Class C’s performance this week, the analyst comments, “Despite having no voting power, the Class C shares closed [on April 12] at a 0.6% premium to Class A, consistent with the general trend over the past two trading sessions.”
Komp’s notes that his EPS and price target revisions now reflect Class A shares (of which each share has 1 vote), Class B shares (10 votes per share), and Class C shares (no vote). He states, “Adjusted 2016E EPS is $0.65 (was $1.30 prior to the Class C stock dividend),” and continues, “Adjusted 2017E EPS is now $0.81 (was $1.62 prior to the Class C stockdividend).” The analyst’s new price target is $49.
According to TipRanks, Jonathan Komp has a 60% success rate and delivers an average return of 3.5% per recommendation. Eleven analysts gave UA a Buy rating, one analyst gave a Sell rating and two remain on the sidelines. The average of the 12-month price targets is $96.92, marking a 125.61% upside from current levels.
Analyst Pablo Zuanic of Susquehanna criticizes Pepsi’s underperformance in 4Q15 and 1Q16, which leads him to lower his estimates ahead of 1Q16 results (expected 04/18). The analyst cut his 1Q16 EPS estimate from 84 cents to 80 cents, 1 cent below consensus. In addition, The analyst is not enthusiastic on Coca Cola’s 20% valuation discount. He doesn’t see an opportunity for investors to jump in on Pepsi right now. Zuanic reiterates a neutral rating on the stock with a $105 price target.
Zuanic first touches on Pepsi’s situation in the last two quarters and Coca Cola’s valuation discount. He states, “PEP’s significant underperformance in U.S. CSDs vs. KO in 4Q15 and 1Q16 (as per the scanner data), and PEP’s apparent more aggressive pricing stance in non-CDSs will likely hurt sentiment and give us some concerns ahead of 1Q16 (out 4/18).” He continues, “All this notwithstanding the continued strength of the Snacks business (more than half of EBIT), even though earnings growth there has become more price-based. Net, this may be a case of better entry points in the months ahead.”
Zuanic does see some catalysts for Pepsi in the coming months in matters relating to Coca Cola, share price valuation, and stock splits. In regards to Coca Cola, the analyst explains, “20% discount to KO on apples to apples metrics; at the end of the day if CSDs represent inherent risks, then PEP is better positioned than KO given its snacks unit and greater reliance on non CSDs vs KO.” Pepsi is anticipating several events that will negatively impact shares prices, such as potential impending bad news regarding Diet Pepsi following “sweetener changes.” However, the analyst believes this headwind is already reflected in the price. Lastly, Zuanic expects a favorable stock split, adding, “Although requiring multiple hypotheticals, we think the likelihood of a split could be higher if we see further senior leadership changes.”
According to TipRanks, Pablo Zuanic predictions have a 66% success rate and deliver an average return of 1.8% per recommendation. Five analysts gave PEP a Buy rating and three remained on the sidelines. The average 12-month price target from all recommendations is $106.57, marking a 3.01% upside from current levels.