Top Analyst Predicts Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Primed to Capture 45% of Goods Sold Online This U.S. Shopping Holiday Season

Youssef Squali is increasingly confident of AMZN's ability to rev up its market slice of U.S. e-commerce in 4Q.


‘Tis almost the season for online holiday shopping, and one top analyst believes Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) could be capturing over 45% of gross merchandise volume market share coupled with roughly 24% in revenue share.

Top analyst Youssef Squali bets that software maker Adobe, which analyzes retail as well as other industries is “underestimating” domestic online holiday sales, with the company forecasting that between November through December, sales will reach $107.4 billion in the U.S. This would imply 13.8% year-over-year growth, which falls below the 14.4% seen this time last year, and Squali asserts, “we believe the estimate will prove conservative.” Additionally, the analyst notes that “differentiated/easy to manage apps are poised to also do well.”

The analyst maintains a Buy rating on AMZN stock with a $1,270 price target, which represents a nearly 13% increase from current levels.

“We’re incrementally positive on AMZN as the company continues to accelerate its share gain of US ecommerce in 4Q, which we estimate at 45%+, driven by a broader selection, secular shift online (precipitated by accelerating store closings), and Prime,” writes Squali, who notes that his forecasts for GMV and revenue suggest outperformance considering the around 40% in GMV and 20% growth in revenue Amazon attained last year.

Squali concludes: “We believe the drivers of outperformance for Amazon this holiday season will be 1) broader selection; 2) secular shift online, precipitated by acceleration in store closings; 3) Prime, and 4) the introduction of a series of hardware devices, including the Echo/ smart home units. Given a record breaking Prime Day in 2Q, continued momentum in 3Q, and the fact that this is just the second holiday season offering monthly Prime memberships (a service we view as most compelling during the holidays), we expect a record breaking holiday season for the company.”

For an online auction and e-commerce leader one of Wall Street’s best performing analysts expects will account for over 45% of goods sold online this domestic shopping holiday season, Amazon looks to be in as strong as standing as ever before.

Youssef Squali has a very good TipRanks score with a 72% success rate and a high ranking of #62 out of 4,705 analysts. Squali garners 18.7% in his annual returns. When recommending AMZN, Squali gains 43.6% in average profits on the stock.

This tech player has attracted one of the most stellar analyst consensus ratings on the Street, with TipRanks analytics exhibiting AMZN as a Strong Buy. Out of 32 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 31 are bullish on Amazon stock while 1 remains sidelined. With a return potential of 11%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $1,250.31.