What’s in Store for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Ahead of Earnings? Top Analyst Gives His Best Shot

Mark Mahaney doesn't see much upside for Netflix stock ahead of earnings, but remains in the Bulls camp.


Streaming video giant Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is slated to report third-quarter earnings results on Monday, October 16, and investors, first and foremost, will be looking for a pickup in the subscriber numbers.

RBC Capital’s top analyst Mark Mahaney is forecasting for Q3 domestic streaming sub adds of 750,000 (below the Street’s 784,000 estimate) and international streaming sub adds of 3.65 million (above the Street’s 3.62 million estimate). Overall, the analyst’s revenue and GAAP EPS estimates stand at $2.97 billion and $0.32, respectively, in line with the Street and the company’s guidance.

Mahaney noted, “Based on intra-quarter data points & our proprietary survey work, we view Street estimates for Q3 as reasonable, with equal chance of modest upside and downside variance. In terms of Q4, we believe the Street’s outlook for roughly 1.64MM Domestic Sub Ads is reasonable, as is the Street’s estimate for 4.63MM International Sub Adds. That said, NFLX may well be conservative with its Q4 Dom Sub Guide, given the pending price increase.”

Mahaney reiterates an Outperform rating on Netflix shares, with a price target of $210, which represents a potential upside of 5% from where the stock is currently trading.

As usual, we like to include the analyst’s trackrecord when reporting on new analyst notes. According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, 5-star analyst Mark Mahaney has a yearly average return of 25.9% and a 76% success rate. Mahaney has a 45.4% average return when recommending NFLX, and is ranked #15 out of 4698 analysts.

How does Mahaney’s bullish bet weigh in against the Street? It appears the analyst is not the only one enthusiastic on the streaming platform’s prospects, with TipRanks analytics demonstrating NFLX as a Buy. Out of 35 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 23 are bullish on Micron stock while 11 remain sidelined and one is bearish. With a slight upside potential, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $203.13.