Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc’s (SGYP) Trulance Launch Just Keeps Getting Better

H.C. Wainwright predicts the CIC drug's annualized run rate surpasses $30 million.


Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:SGYP) is continuing to rack up momentum in the chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC) arena thanks to its promising Trulance launch metrics, which slowly but surely are making impressive strides forward.

In particular, H.C. Wainwright analyst Ram Selvaraju highlights the drug maker’s annualized run rate, which according to prescription data through the close of September, the analyst believes could be shooting past a whopping $30 million.

As such, in anticipation of further commercial progress with Trulance, the analyst reiterates a Buy rating on SGYP stock with an $8 price target, which implies a just under 137% increase from where the stock is currently trading. (To watch Ram Selvaraju’s track record, click here)

Selvaraju looks to two short-term advantages benefiting the firm: “Furthermore, we continue to anticipate two meaningful near-term inflection points: (1) acceleration of script growth in the wake of the expiration of the new product blocks late last quarter; and (2) broadening of the patient population accessible under the Trulance label in the wake of the approval of the drug for treatment of constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS-C), for which the PDUFA date for the supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) filed early this year is January 24, 2018.”

With all this in mind, the analyst anticipates his revenue expectations for next year for Trulance to bring to the table $85.4 million in sales to be “readily achievable.” With the total script count (TRx) closing out September with 2,123 scripts written, which signify a total of 79,829 pills (which Selvaraju translates to about 38 pills per script), the analyst underscores the number of new scripts (NRx) written in the same period rounded out 1,230 (40+ pills per script). “Manufacturer’s benchmark sales dollars (MBS) for TRx in the last week of September were $941K, which in our view positions the company reasonably to meet or even exceed our 3Q17 projected topline number of $5.7M,” contends Selvaraju, who likes an “optimized” specialty sales initiative backing the drug maker.

Glancing ahead, the analyst projects that as Synergy’s Trulance’s sales put the pedal to the medal, the company could reach a cash flow breakeven point operationally within two years, and could tap into profitability before the year closes.

Wall Street as a whole is betting on this pharma stock, as TipRanks analytics reveal SGYP as a Buy. Out of 6 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 5 are bullish on Synergy stock while 1 is bearish. With a return potential of 156%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $8.58.SGYP analyst ratings chart