• Stocks are approaching their worst 2 month stretch of the year in the US and Europe.
  • Stock Prices globally are at multi year, nay record highs.
  • Volatility has reached historic lows and credit spreads are at their tights.
  • European breakouts are failing as the Euro surges and the “Car-tel” crumbles
  • Transports and Airlines have put in Bearish False Breakouts from all-time highs.
  • Tech and Semi’s are staring down Bearish Engulf/Double Tops in the SOX/XLK/QQQ.
  • The Russell is leaking after an anemic sort of breakout with the Dollar crumbling.
  • Korea displays clear signs of exhaustion and EM is now basically a big Tech play. (Which is fine btw).
  • And on a lighter sweeter note, Crude is putting in higher lows like a champ.
  • Yields however haven’t broken higher from a countertrend pattern like this in 30 yrs.
  • Higher commodity prices and a weaker dollar; with lower yields/growth/curve, would be bad.
  • If a stronger dollar meant the Fed could move slower, does a weak dollar mean they have to move faster?
  • The Sum of which continues to suggest caution/defense/puts as we enter August.