BTIG analyst Tim Chiang is optimistic in regard to continued long-term growth at Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:SGYP). The company is taking a number of steps to market Trulance to around 20,000 US based physicians, including to provide a 7-day worth of samples and using 250 Touchpoint reps to get the word out. The analyst notes that just 17 weeks after launch refills rates increased by 31% and Trulance is on pace to surpass $21.5 million in sales by the end of CY2017. Chiang further believes the product can continue to gain traction among the 40 million US patients suffering from chronic constipation over the next five years.
Chiang noted “Based on our analysis of Symphony Healthcare prescription data, there were ~1,617 total (~1,120 new and ~497 refills) prescriptions dispensed for the week ending June 23, 2017. In addition, we are seeing a steady increase in the number of refills, with the refill rate now at ~31% of total prescriptions dispensed. Based on an estimated net price per Rx of ~$250, we believe Trulance is at a ~$20M – $21M annualized run rate.”
The analyst also recognizes the drug as a long term prospect opining “We continue to believe that our longer-term peak sales estimate of ~$500M by 2022 is achievable, given the sizeable market opportunity […] Our analysis of Linzess prescription trends suggests the overall Rx market continues to grow, which supports our view that market expansion is occurring with the launch of Trulance.”
Chiang maintains a Buy rating for SGYP with a $11 price target representing a 158% rise above current levels. (To watch Chiang’s track record, click here)
TipRanks analytics indicate SGYP as a Buy. Out of 6 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 5 are bullish, while 1 is bearish. The consensus target price stands at $10.95, revealing no change from current levels.
