J.P. Morgan analyst Cory Kasimov is out today with a new research note on Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD), after the drug maker presented detailed results from two out of four Phase 3 trials evaluating GILD’s bictegravir + F/TAF (B/F/TAF) regimen in treatment-naïve HIV patients. The data were presented in two late-breaker sessions at the 9th IAS Conference on HIV Science (IAS 2017) in Paris.
Kasimov commented, “In our view the full data is generally unsurprising though perhaps somewhat underwhelming (given numerical efficacy slightly lower vs. the dolutegravir containing regimens, albeit statistically non-inferior). Nevertheless, we believe – and more importantly think KOLs believe – that B/F/TAF is indeed clinically non-inferior based on these results. In addition, the safety profiles look more or less interchangeable (no emergent resistance and low discontinuations due to AEs on both arms). As mentioned in our HIV deep dive (here), the launch of this product (in ~2018; potentially with expedited review using one of GILD’s 2 PRVs) could be vital for GILD to maintain market share in the face of continued dolutegravir growth and wave of patent expiries in the next ~5 years.”
“Based on today’s full results, our overall view on the HIV landscape remains the same. We continue to model sales of ~$5B for B/F/TAF by 2022. Accordingly, we don’t expect much of a move one way or the other in terms of share price,” the analyst concluded.
Kasimov reiterates an Overweight rating on Gilead Sciences, with a price target of $80, which represents a potential upside of 9% from where the stock is currently trading. (To watch Kasimov’s track record, click here)
Out of the 11 analysts polled in the past 3 months, 8 rate Gilead Sciences stock a Buy, while 3 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of nearly 13%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $82.88.