In a research report issued Monday, Needham analyst Alan Carr upgraded shares of Genocea Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:GNCA), while setting a new price target of $12.00, which implies an upside of 121% from current levels. The reason? Genocea announced data from GEN-003 Phase 2b trial in HSV2 demonstrating durable efficacy through 12 months. (To watch Carr’s track record, click here)
Carr wrote, “We believe GEN-003 likely to be differentiated and convenient option w/ public health benefits. We downgraded stock 2/17/17 based on concerns that Genocea would not move forward to Phase 3 w/o a collaborator, potentially stalling the program for extended period. However, management now appears open to alternative strategy in which Genocea independently initiates Phase 3 in a staggered fashion. We now assume Genocea will initiate Phase 3 600 patients antiviral combination and 600 patients monotherapy trials 4Q17, followed by a 3rd larger 2500 patients monotherapy trial in 2019. We are upgrading to BUY based on what we believe is a feasible independent path to market.”
“Our $12 price target is based on 25x our $1.89 2024 EPS est, discounted 25% annually. We assume $750M peak U.S. sales 2030 based on average $750/pt/yr revenue w/ 5% annual price increases. We assume BLA submission mid-2021 and U.S. commercial launch mid-2022,” the analyst added.
Out of the 5 analysts polled in the past 12 months, 4 rate Genocea stock a Buy, while 1 rates the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 354%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $24.67.