BTIG analyst Tim Chiang was out today with a research note on drug maker Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:SGYP), noting that SGYP’s chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC) drug Trulance continues to track ahead of his expectations for ~$21.5 million of sales in CY2017.
Chiang reiterated a Buy rating on SGYP with a price target of $11, which represents a potential upside of 138% from where the stock is currently trading.
Chiang opined, “With Trulance weekly prescriptions exceeding 1,000 per week, the product is now running ahead of our monthly forecasted projections for June. We believe we will see continued volume increases post the recent DDW meeting, which highlighted the product to more than 15,000 physicians.”
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“For CY17, we estimate Trulance sales of ~$21.5M, which factors in a gradual initial ramp which begins to pick up steam in 2H17. We continue to believe that our longer-term peak sales estimate of ~$500M by 2022 is achievable, given the sizeable market opportunity (~40M patients in the US with chronic constipation). We believe Synergy has an experienced GI-focused sales force detailing Trulance to over 20,000 physicians in the US. Our prescription based Trulance sales model is shown in the table below. We factor in an estimated net price per prescription of ~$250, which factors in a 30% gross-to-net discount factor,” the analyst continued.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Tim Chiang has a yearly average return of 14.5% and a 60% success rate. Chiang has a 7% average return when recommending SGYP, and is ranked #535 out of 4592 analysts.
Out of the 7 analysts polled in the past 12 months, 6 rate Synergy Pharmaceuticals stock a Buy, while 1 rates the stock a Sell. With a return potential of 161%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $12.08.