J.P. Morgan’s Cory Kasimov is attending the annual American Society of Clinical Oncology, or ASCO, meeting and came away with more confidence about the benefit of Puma Biotechnology Inc’s (NASDAQ:PBYI) Neratinib, compared to competitor Perjeta-based regimen.
Kasimov wrote, “We are currently attending ASCO where results from the Phase 3 APHINITY trial of Perjeta in combination with Herceptin and chemotherapy were presented this morning. From a PBYI perspective, most focus was on the absolute iDFS benefit and contribution of subgroups (HR status in particular), and the results on both fronts has favorable implications for neratinib, in our view.”
“The absolute risk reduction in 3yr iDFS of 0.9% (HR: 0.81; p=0.045) came in well below neratinib’s 2yr iDFS benefit of 2.3% (HR: 0.67; p=0.009). Moreover, it appears that these results just narrowly met the burden of statistical significance at a p-value of 0.045. Additionally this benefit appears to be driven by node positive (1.8% absolute benefit) and HR negative (1.6% absolute benefit) patients. Recall that the benefit of neratinib was primarily driven by the HR+ subgroup (4.2% benefit at 2yrs). From our past conversations with KOLs, we believe that an effect size of 2-3% would be required to meaningfully drive uptake in this setting. We see these results as being another clear boost for PBYI that removes a persistent overhang and adds to the company’s overall strategic value,” the analyst continued.
Kasimov reiterates an Overweight rating on shares of Puma Biotechnology with a price target of $89, which represents a potential upside of 6% from where the stock is currently trading.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Cory Kasimov has a yearly average return of -2.8% and a 38% success rate. Kasimov has a 43.2% average return when recommending PBYI, and is ranked #4200 out of 4579 analysts.