Zosano Pharma Corp (NASDAQ:ZSAN) shares skyrocketed over 170% in the past three days, after the company reported positive pivotal trial data for its M207 migraine treatment, and after Roth Capital analyst Scott Henry boosted his price target on ZSAN from $2.00 to $3.25, which reflects an increased probability of M207 approval to 80% (from 50%). Henry rates ZSAN stock a Buy.
Henry wrote, “To evaluate the efficacy data, we compare to Lasmiditan (from CoLucid/Eli Lilly). Lasmiditan reported 2 hour pain freedom of 28.2%/32.2% versus 15.3% for placebo. Most bothersome symptom free rates on Lasmiditan were ~40.8% versus 29.5% for placebo. Although it is difficult to evaluate across trials, we find the M207 data at least as compelling as Lasmiditan (if not more).”
“We highlight the recent purchase of CoLucid Pharmaceuticals by Eli Lilly for ~$1 billion (January 2017). By no means are the two companies the same, but this does give an indication, in our opinion, in the value that a migraine treatment can have to acquirers. Allergan similarly paid near $1 billion for migraine developer MAP Pharmaceuticals in 2013,” the analyst added.
According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Scott Henry has a yearly average return of -1.0% and a 40.5% success rate. Henry has a -23.6% average return when recommending ZSAN, and is ranked #3640 out of 4453 analysts.
Out of the 2 analysts polled in the past 12 months, one rate Zosano Pharma stock a Buy, while one rates the stock a Hold. With a downside potential of 6%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $3.25.