When considering intra-quarter data points, his quarterly survey work, and his model sensitivity work, the analyst finds the Street’s revenue as well as EPS projections for the fourth-quarter “reasonable.”
For the fourth quarter of 2016, Mahaney calls for $2.47 billion in total revenue and $0.13 in GAAP EPS, mirroring the Street’s forecasts and guidance. Moreover, the analyst predicts the online streaming giant will bring in $1.46MM in Domestic Streaming Sub Adds, even more confident than the Street’s estimate for 1.44MM, as well as International Streaming Sub Adds of 3.755, just ahead of the Street’s 3.74MM.
“For the Q1 guide, we believe the Street’s outlook for close to 1.54MM Domestic Sub Ads and 2.81MM International Sub Ads are reasonable, tho in Q1 NFLX faces a tough International comp given the large rollout in Q1:16. Per our Large Cap Preview (Jan. 10, 2017), NFLX has been the biggest ‘Net stock outperformer over the last quarter, which we interpret as implying high expectations for the quarter, i.e., NFLX only trades up on a Clean Beat & Raise print,” Mahaney contends.
Between “very high” usage levels, the millennial subscription advantage (67% of millennials subscribe compared to 43% of users aged 29 and up), a rise in both satisfaction and penetration in France and Germany as well as a greater willingness to invest in streaming content, “positive” U.S. traffic trends, and a new download capability, Mahaney raises a slew of reasons to bet on the stock.
Therefore, the analyst reiterates an Outperform rating on NFLX with a price target of $150, which represents a 16% increase from where the shares last closed.
Mark Mahaney has a very good TipRanks score with a 71% success rate and he stands at #6 out of 4,340 analysts. Mahaney realizes 20.7% in his yearly returns. When recommending NFLX, Mahaney yields 53.3% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics indicate NFLX as a Buy. Based on 34 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 18 rate a Buy on NFLX stock, 12 maintain a Hold, and 4 issue a Sell. The 12-month average price target stands at $128.22, marking a slight approximately 1% downside.