Doug Short

About the Author Doug Short

Doug Short is first-wave boomer with a lifelong interest in markets and the economy. His professional career had been a satisfying split between academia (English Professor at North Carolina State University) and Information technology (IBM and GSK). Doug retired in 2006 to devote himself full-time to his dshort.com financial website. The domain has now been acquired by Advisor Perspectives, and Doug has been appointed the Vice President of Research. Doug is especially interested in the economy, long-term market trends and behavioral finance.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): The Trump Rally Appears To Be Stalled

Thursday morning, the S&P 500 seemed to reiterate its misgivings about Trump’s churlish demeanor during his first post-election press conference. The index opened lower and plunged to its -0.93% intraday low about 90 minutes into the trade. A buy-the-dip strategy then steadily lifted the 500 to its fractional -0.21% close, a tad below the -0.16% intraday high shortly before the bell.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at 2.36%, down two BPs from the previous close.

Here is a daily chart of the index. Despite Friday’s record close, the two-staged Trump rally has essentially stalled at a line of resistance.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here’s a snapshot of record highs and selloffs since the 2009 trough.

Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.