Novadaq Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:NVDQ) shares are stumbling 14% after the healthcare company preannounced fourth-quarter results that has led investors to run for the hills in their wake. With reluctance to do so, Canaccord analyst Jason Mills reiterates a Buy rating on shares of NVDQ, while cutting the price target from $15 to $10, which represents a just under 52% increase from where the stock is currently trading.
Mills explains, “We admittedly struggle to maintain justification for a BUY rating for myriad reasons including management credibility, projected volatility in capital sales, debt capital raise (despite assertions in Q4 that more capital was not necessary), stark changes to the capital sales model, and disconcerting accounts receivable (increased throughout 2016, from $21.8M exiting Q1 to $23.7M exiting Q2, growing to $27.1M coming out of Q3).”
“That said, we ultimately conclude the value of the enterprise – due in large part to best-in-class fluorescent imaging technology and emerging tissue product competitiveness – is greater than today’s likely opening trade, in our estimation. What’s more, we think management/BOD is motivated to fix issues and prepare the firm for M&A over the next 12 months. To wit, our valuation analysis […] serves as the primary factor keeping us from moving to the sidelines on the stock,” Mills contends.
Top-line revenues came up short by 20% compared to the analyst’s projection ($20.2M compared to $24.9ME). Yet, he still backs the market potential of the firm’s imaging platform as well as its DermACELL product line, which he commends as “unique” and “synergistic.” For now, the analyst hopes NVDQ’s management savvy plays to refocus resources on drumming up the revenue side of its business prove to be worthwhile for shareholders standing by the stock in the long-term.
According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, four-star analyst Jason Mills is ranked #587 out of 4,351 analysts. Mills has a 53% success rate and gains 4.5% in his annual returns. However, when recommending NVDQ, Mills loses 15.4% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics indicate NVDQ as a Buy. Out of 6 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 4 are bullish on Novadaq stock and 2 remain sidelined. With a return potential of 115%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $13.00.
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