Here’s Why Agile Therapeutics Inc (AGRX) Shares Are Crashing 49% Today; Cantor Remains Bullish


Agile Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:AGRX) investors are in a scramble today after the firm released top-line data from its SECURE Phase 3 study of Twirla, a once-weekly contraceptive patch that left expectations feeling overshot. In reaction, shares are on a rapid 49% plummet.

Yet, from Cantor analyst Chiara Russo‘s this “significant aftermarket sell off” comes across as strikingly “overdone,” refusing to let the apprehension in the air make her budge from her bullish standpoint. Therefore, the analyst remains positive on AGRX and reiterates an Overweight rating on shares of AGRX but lowers the price target to $7, which represents a 172% increase from where the stock is currently trading.

Russo explains, “Though both the Pearl Index (PI) and upper bound of the 95% confidence interval (UBCI) were higher than expected, we maintain that there is still potential for approval, albeit on much riskier footing. We maintain our rating, but lower our price target to $7 to account for increased risk.”

Though the success of the NDA for Twirla now is cloudy, the analyst does not see the prospect as altogether impossible, adding, “Additionally and importantly, the safety and tolerability profile continued to be very favorable,” which she considers will be regulators’ top points of assessment.

Moreover, the analyst opines, “We believe that AGRX has run a robust trial reflective of the real world population and that Twirla safety data is sound. With efficacy, however, we find AGRX asking the FDA to approve the highest PI and UBCI of any combined hormone contraceptive product. Though we understand that technically, there was no predetermined endpoint, and therefore we struggle with this ask.”

Overall, “In looking through the history and scope, we believe that there is path to approval for Twirla, but we couple this with a significant increase in risk,” Russo contends.

As usual, we recommend taking analyst notes with a grain of salt. According to TipRanks, one-star analyst Chiara Russo is ranked #3,106 out of 4,351 analysts. Russo has a 48% success rate and loses 0.5% in her annual returns. When recommending AGRX, Russo forfeits 26.7% in average profits on the stock.

TipRanks analytics demonstrate AGRX as a Strong Buy. Based on 3 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, all 3 rate a Buy on AGRX stock. The 12-month average price target stands at $13.00, marking a 392% upside from where the shares last closed.