The Sovereign Investor

About the Author The Sovereign Investor

Since 1998, The Sovereign Society has been at the vanguard of the pursuit for personal liberty and free markets. We enthusiastically support the enduring pursuit of freedom and prosperity, and, to that end, we believe in empowering individuals to make educated investment choices. Through the years, we have assembled a talented and deeply experienced team of analysts, editors and researchers who understand that the best investment and wealth-protection opportunities in any market are often hidden. And our approach has led to a great degree of success. Our independent, uncompromised research has predicted some of the biggest financial catastrophes in recent memory. We were one of the very first financial research firms to warn investors about the dangers in the derivatives market and the threat they posed to the global financial system. We also alerted our readers about the dollars crisis of 2004-2005, the meltdown in the private-equity markets in 2007, the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, and we’ve been sounding the alarm bells about the European debt crisis since early 2010, long before the mainstream media started paying attention. In an age when our personal and economic freedoms are being curtailed like never before, our work has never been more important, and our voice never more indispensable. That’s why we remain steadfast in our mission of scouring the globe for investment opportunities that can only be unearthed by our exhaustive, “boots-on-the-ground” approach. With a daunting economic era ahead of us, our purpose is providing our subscribers with the unvarnished truth in an industry filled with artifice and obfuscation. We realize that a world of investment opportunity exists in stocks, commodities, currencies and asset protection that are often overlooked. Our mission is to bring them to you each day. Interested in joining? Sign up for The Sovereign Investor Daily Daily today! (It’s FREE!) Visit http://thesovereigninvestor.com/

Preparing for the New Trump Economy

By Jeff D. Opdyke

Well, now that that’s over, the real question is: Where to next?

Truthfully, I’m disappointed the Fed raised interest rates last week. I expected as much; though as I wrote in a previous dispatch, I saw reasons why a rate hike would be ill-advised and should have been avoided.

There are simply too many deleterious impacts on massively indebted U.S. consumers, American multinational companies slammed by the strengthening dollar and emerging market economies that have taken on trillions in dollar-denominated debt that’s getting more and more costly. Those impacts will come home to roost soon enough.

Now we’re supposedly on the march toward three more rate hikes in 2017. Maybe; though doubtful. But we shall see.

The stock market certainly got what it thought it wanted, then promptly went nowhere.

Bonds flagged.

The dollar rallied.

Cheerleaders claim we’re on the road to even higher stock prices — never mind that rising interest rates have historically meant falling stock market valuations (more on that in an upcoming dispatch).

Yet, we’re still left with the question: Where to next?

I have an idea, and you’ll want to own commodities if I’m right.

Having bullied Yellen for a rate hike, Wall Street is now waiting for the Day After January 21. It will be like no other day after a presidential inauguration in modern history.

So many promises/threats are waiting to either unfold or fizzle. Which Donald Trump will show up to his first day on the job? Wall Street’s directional future depends on that answer.

The Threat of Stagflation

If Candidate Trump arrives, then we have economic challenges that will torment the market.

Immigrants who make up a goodly portion of the service-sector workforce will be rounded up and summarily dispatched back to their homelands — a massive disruption to restaurant back-of-house operations, the construction industry, agriculture, hoteling, landscape companies, etc. That’s inflationary and a significant brake on economic growth.

Chinese manufacturers/exporters face stiff tariffs as Candidate Trump executes his belief that China is manipulating its currency. That, too, is inflationary and will see China lash out with similar tariffs that hit U.S. exporters, leading to layoffs here at home.

U.S. companies also face punitive measures for trying to remain competitive globally by opening production facilities overseas (made all the more important because of the anti-competitive impacts of the strong dollar). That will hit corporate profit margins and lead to declining stock prices and job losses at home.

Meanwhile, infrastructure spending combined with proposed tax cuts means a fresh round of hell for budget deficits and America’s debt. That’s stagflationary because the rising cost of government debt payments takes productive capital out of the economy, while infrastructure projects dump money into the economy which will be chasing goods and services — i.e., rising demand (which will be happening even as all the other inflationary moves unfold).

So, Candidate Trump arriving to work on Day One could present quite the problem for stocks and bonds, since inflation erodes corporate profits and the value of current bond yields.

A More Moderate Approach

If Presidential Trump shows up, we have a slightly brighter path to tomorrow, though economic challenges still exist.

Presidential Trump will not provoke a trade war, saving America from another losing battle, while limiting inflationary stresses at home and saving U.S. multinationals from the pain of rapid profit deterioration (nearly half the S&P 500’s sales and profits come from overseas).

Nor will Presidential Trump deport 11 million illegal immigrants starting on the Day After, preventing mass pain across service-sector industries, inside American wallets and across the broad economy in general.

Nor will he impose punitive measures on American companies that are desperate to remain competitive in a modern global economy. That will preserve corporate profits and limit the impact on stock prices.

Presidential Trump will, however, pursue his infrastructure spending plan, no matter what. That will be inflationary, which means it’s time to add “hard commodities” to your portfolio — and, in particular, industrial commodities, or “base metals,” as they’re called, such as copper, nickel, aluminum and whatnot.

The Winner for 2017…

Inflation will drive the price of commodities higher, as will increasing demand which will stem from U.S. infrastructure spending, since new roads and bridges and airports and whatever project is on the docket require an abundance of industrial metals.

In the February issue of Total Wealth Insider, I will be telling my readers one of the single best hard commodity investments to make for 2017. In fairness to them, however, I won’t announce that investment here. But I will tell you about a slightly different opportunity: the PowerShares Deutsche Bank Base Metals ETF (NYSE Arca: DBB), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that, among its peers, has the best track record over the last five years.

This particular ETF is tied to copper, zinc and aluminum, and its returns are based on the performance of futures contracts in those three metals. As a way to gain basic exposure to rising prices for some of the most widely used base metals, this fund is fine.

As with all such hard commodity ETFs, however, the returns are impacted by the fund’s continual need to roll over the futures contracts it owns from one month to the next.

So that’s where we stand: Wall Street waiting to see which Donald Trump shows up. But whichever one it is, it’s a Trump who’s likely to be quite the tailwind for commodity investments.