Shares of Horizon Pharma PLC (NASDAQ:HZNP) and Radius Health Inc (NASDAQ:RDUS) each plunged more than 10% Thursday following disappointing clinical trial results. Let’s illuminate analyst insights on these two falling biotech stocks.
Horizon Pharma PLC (HZNP)
Horizon Pharma shares are falling nearly 19% today, after the drug maker announced that its Phase III STEADFAST trial of Actimmune in Friedreich’s Ataxia did not meet its primary endpoint of improvement on the modified Friedreich’s Ataxia Rating Scale at 26 weeks. The study also failed to demonstrate efficacy on any of the secondary endpoints.
In reaction, Mizuho analyst Irina Rivkind Koffler is putting her Buy rating and $30 price target under review.
Koffler wrote, “We think there could be a significant turnover in investment base from here, especially without the certainty of an Express Scripts contracting agreement in the primary care drugs. This process may also take some time creating significant volatility in the stock. That said, there could be additional cost savings associated with termination of the FA program and all associated research and marketing costs already incorporated into 4Q:16 assumptions. The stock should therefore plateau today at the very minimum, rather than continue to drop, in our view.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Irina Rivkind Koffler has a yearly average return of 14.9% and a 48% success rate. Koffler has a 8.5% average return when recommending HZNP, and is ranked #129 out of 4271 analysts.
Out of the 12 analysts polled by TipRanks, 11 rate Horizon Pharma stock a Buy, while 1 rates the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 100%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $31.60.
Radius Health Inc (RDUS)
Radius Health saw its shares tumbling nearly 13% today after presenting data from two ongoing Phase 1 studies of RAD1901, an oral selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD), in patients with estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer, at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2016.
After reviewing the data, Cantor analyst Mara Goldstein commented, “We are attending SABCS where we’re viewing the data for RAD1901 in a poster session. The posters are well-received by clinicians at the conference. But we think the disconnect in RADS shares is due to an expectation for greater responses. Two patients had confirmed partial responses and 7 are still continuing on treatment. The two partial responses occurred in patients treated for greater than 5 months. We note that the duration of patients treated at the 400mg dose selected for expansion is still evolving.”
Canaccord analyst John Newman shared his two cents as well, “RAD-1901 showed a 10% ORR in n=20 patients (2/10), which is consistent with the ~14% ORR for Faslodex (33/240), and the ~17% ORR for ARN-810 (1/6), which we view as encouraging, especially since the dataset size is very small […] We believe RAD-1901 combinations with CDK 4/6 inhibitors will harness the full clinical potential of the drug, and drive long-term commercial value. Importantly, RDUS may choose to target single agent approval for metastatic breast cancer while also exploring combinations with PFE’s palbociclib. We note that palbociclib only showed impressive efficacy when combined with fulvestrant, vs. subpar data as a single agent.”
Out of the 9 analysts polled by TipRanks, 6 are bullish on Radius Health stock, 2 are neutral, and 1 is bearish. With a return potential of 27%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $61.50.