Chris Ciovacco

About the Author Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets? Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities. Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): Is It Time To Throw In The Bullish Towel?

Easy To Get Discouraged

Earlier this week the broad NYSE Composite Stock Index was sitting roughly 7% below its 2015 highs. Therefore, it is rational to get discouraged, especially given the wild central-bank-induced swings over the past couple of years. Thus, it may be helpful look at some facts.

Is The S&P 500’s Pullback Abnormal?

The chart below shows the post-Brexit rally push from point A to point B. A normal retracement would take the S&P 500 back to 2116, 2092, or 2068. After the Fed minutes, the S&P 500 was still holding above all three levels.

Does It Look Like A New Bear Market?

A September 2 analysis used the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to compare a bear market look to a bull market look. The present day S&P 500 chart has not yet morphed into an early bear market look. It may, but it has not yet.

Have Key Weekly Levels Been Given Back?

The weekly chart below shows several levels that acted as resistance in 2015 and earlier in 2016. Thus far, the S&P 500 has not seen a weekly close below the levels shown.

Have The Weekly Charts Flipped Bearish?

An August 2016 analysis looked at a rare turn in weekly stock market trends. After the Fed minutes on October 12, the S&P 500 was still holding onto the favorable long-term probability look.

Could The Facts Flip Bearish?

The answer to the question above is absolutely, positively, yes. However, none of the charts above have flipped yet, which helps us keep an open mind about better than expected outcomes. Bearish probabilities will increase if the charts above break down or give back their recently acquired and favorable looks. Time will tell.