Jefferies analyst John Janedis previews two stock giants, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS), ahead of their quarterly prints. While the analyst remains bearish on the streaming giant, he ultimately remains sidelined on the House of Mouse. Let’s take a closer look:
Netflix is anticipated to deliver third-quarter earnings next week on October 17th. Ahead of results, Janedis reiterates an Underperform rating on shares of NFLX with a $76 price target, which represents just under a 27% downside from where the stock is currently trading.
For the streaming giant’s quarterly print, the analyst projects revenue of $2,249 million, EBIT of $51 million, and EPS of $0.03, which fall below the Street’s estimates of $2,283 million, $57 million, and $0.04.
The analyst contends, “Notably, we expect net subscriber additions of 150K for the US business (vs. guidance of +300K) and 1.8M for the international business (vs guidance of 2.0M). Based on a survey we published in September Netflix Survey Says? Un-Grandfathering Having an Impact, we continue to believe that the un-grandfathering process may have caused an uptick in churn in 3Q.”
Janedis’ expectations for net subscriber additions fall under consensus of over 309,000 in the U.S. and over 2.01 million internationally. The analyst estimates for the year of 2016, NFLX will produce revenue of $8,704 million, EBIT of $268 million, and EPS of $0.28, which are compared to the Street’s forecasts of $8,737 million, $264 million, and $0.28.
According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, four-star analyst John Janedis is ranked #647 out of 4,183 analysts. Janedis has a 56% success rate and realizes 4.4% in his annual returns. However, when recommending NFLX, Janedis loses 2.0% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics demonstrate NFLX as a Buy. Based on 33 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 16 rate a Buy on NFLX, 10 maintain a Hold, while 7 issue a Sell. The 12-month price target stands at $106.00, marking a 2% upside from where the shares last closed.
Walt Disney Co
Meanwhile, The House of Mouse is expected to report fourth-quarter results on November 10th. Janedis remains neutral in his preview, reiterating a Hold rating on DIS with a price target of $92, which represents a nearly 12% downside from where the shares last closed.
The analyst notes he recently reduced his fourth-quarter EPS estimate from $1.12 to $1.11 due to “weaker than expected” advertising, explaining “largely at ESPN, but also at the broadcast stations.” For fourth-quarter, Janedis estimates $13.34 billion for revenue, $2.93 billion for EBIT, and $1.11 for EPS, against the Street’s expectations of $13.65 billion for revenue, $3.21 billion for EBIT, and $1.17 for EPS.
Janedis believes, “We expect consensus estimates will move lower over the next several weeks, as models are adjusted to better reflect a tough Studio comp and the impact of the extra week in F4Q15.”
“We note that the Studio faces a tough theatrical and home video comp,” the analyst adds. However, Janedis believes the Parks will see a 12% year-over-year surge in EBIT to $827 million.
Janedis’ Consumer EBIT is $406 million, which has dipped 9% year-over-year, and he underscores “another tough comp with Star Wars product sales in the year ago qtr.” The analyst’s EPS estimate takes into account $1.7 billion in share repurchases in the quarter.
For the financial year of 2016, Janedis forecasts revenue of $55.83, EBIT of $15.02 billion, and EPS of $5.73, which falls slightly under consensus of $5.79.
For the financial year of 2017, the analyst forecasts 3.6% revenue growth to $57.84 billion, 0.8% EBIT growth to $15.14 billion, and 4% EPS growth to $5.96, compared to consensus of $6.07.
TipRanks analytics indicate DIS as a Buy. Based on 18 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 8 rate a Buy on DIS, 9 maintain a Hold, while 1 issues a Sell. The consensus price target stands at $109.79, marking a close to 19% upside from where the stock is currently trading.