Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) is preparing to release earnings for its first quarter of 2017 on September 27th. Ahead of results and taking note that the athletic retailer must grapple to overcome a “competitive landscape,” Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy reiterates a Neutral rating on shares of NKE with a $58 price target, which represents a nearly 5% increase from where the stock is currently trading.
In light of foreign exchange (FX) changes, Murphy adjusts estimates to reflect the volatile environment, raising her first-quarter EPS estimate from $0.52 to $0.53, just under the Street at $0.56, and upping her fiscal year EPS projection for 2017 from $2.33 to $2.35, below consensus of $2.40.
Of the most significant “incremental movers,” the analyst points to positives with the Brazilian Real, the Mexican peso, and the Korean won, as well as the negatives with the CAD and British pound. With these currencies in consideration, Murphy assesses a net positive sales benefit hitting $92 million and $0.02 to EPS.
The analyst contends, “In terms of the set-up for Q1, we note the ‘bar’ is fairly low given management reset margin and sales expectations last quarter. While we believe Q1’s consensus EPS is achievable, we believe shares will trade more on the following: 1) Q2 guidance; 2) commentary around NA (expectations are for growth in Q1); 3) inventory trends; and 4) global futures.”
Ultimately, “While we believe in the brand long term, we elect to stay on the sidelines as we believe competitive pressure coupled with a near-term pause in innovation likely keep shares range bound over the next 6-12 month period,” Murphy concludes.
As usual, we recommend taking analyst notes with a grain of salt. According to TipRanks, analyst Erinn Murphy is ranked #4,000 out of 4,175 analysts. Murphy has a 37% success rate and faces a loss of 7.7% in her annual returns. When recommending NKE, Murphy loses 2.6% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics exhibit NKE as a Buy. Based on 21 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 14 rate a Buy on NKE, while 7 maintain a Hold. The 12-month price target stands at $63.85, marking a 15% upside from where the shares last closed.