The analyst still has a positive outlook on Merck’s fundamentals, but the “TINA” (there is no alternative) effect is no longer strong enough for Arfaei to maintain an Outperform rating. The analyst believes the risk and reward of Merck is now balanced and continues to expect price pressure in major markets.” This pressure is causing the analyst the lower his long-term forecasts for Keytruda and Hep-C. In addition, there are many uncertainties surrounding the company that is worrying Arfaei. These include; the U.S. election, Lilly’s Jardiance CV label expansion on Merck’s Januvia franchise and an economic slowdown in the EU.
According to TipRanks, the analyst has a success rate of 70% with an average return per recommendation of 6.9%.