Murphy comments that though Fitbit has had new launches of Alta and Blaze through Amazon this spring, she attributes a surge of excess inventory overflowing to sale sites like Zulily, targeted more as a mother/family-oriented site, for an overall pricing downturn. The analyst is not shocked that FitBit product Charge is experiencing a price compression of 18%, as it is reasonable for older inventory to taper off. However, the surprise lies with Alta, unique in that it’s FIT’s newest merchandise- designed as the updated, latest edition replacement for Charge. Instead of the masses racing to own the new model, Murphy’s findings show that even Alta “is seeing some select discounting on Amazon and Zulily.” Zulily’s discounted FitBit product listing had already sold out two of three Alta’s available.
The analyst also notes a clear change in the European market following the aftermath of a FX pressured post-Brexit economy, where up until now, the UK had been FitBit’s most stable market. However, with Brexit’s impact, now “the pound is tracking down ~16.5% for Q3 Y/Y).” For this reason, Murphy will be reducing estimates for the third quarter as well as the foreseeable future.
Murphy intends to leave estimates for the second quarter at $582 million and $0.11 in EPS, compared to Street estimates of $578 million and $0.11, respectively. The analyst reiterated a Hold rating on FitBit, reducing her price target from $16 to $14, marking a 2% upside from where the stock is currently trading.
As usual, we recommend taking analyst notes with a grain of salt. They are often successful in moving the stock price, but you always need to take things into perspective. Murphy is ranked #3,818 out of 4,038 analysts on TipRanks, with a 44% success rate and an average loss of 6.3%.
According to TipRanks, 11 analysts rate FitBit a Buy, while 6 remain neutral. The average price target for the stock is $21.22 with a 57% upside.