Doug Short

About the Author Doug Short

Doug Short is first-wave boomer with a lifelong interest in markets and the economy. His professional career had been a satisfying split between academia (English Professor at North Carolina State University) and Information technology (IBM and GSK). Doug retired in 2006 to devote himself full-time to his dshort.com financial website. The domain has now been acquired by Advisor Perspectives, and Doug has been appointed the Vice President of Research. Doug is especially interested in the economy, long-term market trends and behavioral finance.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): The Trump/Santa Rally Continues At A Slower Pace

The rally in equities continued yesterday, although at a slower pace than Wednesday’s surge. Our benchmark S&P 500 traded in a narrow range around Wednesday’s close through most of the morning. A liftoff began during the lunch hour and carried the index to its 0.41% intraday high around 2 PM. An hour of selling followed that took the 500 to a lower range prior to its 0.22% gain at the final bell, yet another record close. With only 11 market days until Christmas, we should perhaps view this rally as attributable to the team of Trump and Santa.

The selloff in treasuries resumed yesterday with the yield on the 10-year note closing at 2.40%, up six bps from its previous close.

Here is a daily chart of the index. Trading volume eased a bit on yesterday’s advance.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.