Lerink Swann analyst Geoff Porges weighed in today with a few insights on Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG), following investor meeting with Celgene’s CFO Peter Kellogg and Investor Relations team for an hour to discuss the company’s outlook for the myeloma market, US healthcare policy, and long-term strategic assets.

Porges noted, “Celgene continues to expect immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs) such as Revlimid to remain the backbone therapy for myeloma despite new entrants into the field. Celgene’s dominant asset Revlimid is in its eleventh year on the market for multiple myeloma and is still projected to grow 26% y/y in 2016E. Mr. Kellogg stated that the two key drivers of this incredible growth are increased duration in the US and the European country launches of the newly diagnosed myeloma indication, with very little growth coming from net price increases.”

“Mr. Kellogg did not expect to see an immediate impact on Revlimid sales from the FDA approval of Darzalex combination with Revlimid and dexamethasone in second-line on November 21, 2016. He offered the example of the RVd SWOG 777 data, originally released at ASH 2015, which did not completely flow into the market and translate into increased volume for Revlimid until 3Q, and he expected this 6-9 month lag to also occur for the Darzalex second-line study approval. These data extended the duration of Revlimid use from 3 years to 4 years and can provide another leg of significant growth for Revlimid sales over late 2017 and beyond. Celgene also mentioned that about a third of myeloma patients are over 75 years of age and are currently not eligible for triplet therapy.”

Porges reiterated a Market Perform rating on shares of Celgene, with a price target of $139, which represents a potential upside of 17% from where the stock is currently trading.

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Geoff Porges has a yearly average return of -3.4% and a 30% success rate. Porges is ranked #3687 out of 4241 analysts.

Out of the 26 analysts polled by TipRanks, 22 rate Celgene Corporation stock a Buy, while 4 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 18%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $140.28.

 

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