With Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) preparing to release earnings, Needham analyst Kerry Rice reiterated a Buy rating on the stock, while raising the price target to $125 (from $105), which implies an upside of 20% from current levels.
Rice wrote, “We expect BABA to report in-line revenue and EBITDA for Sep-16 quarter (F2Q17). China Commerce should continue to account for the majority of revenue and EBITDA. We expect strong GMV growth and continued take rate improvement to power China Commerce revenue growth of 42% y/y and EBITDA margin of over 60%. We believe International growth and the contribution from Digital Media and Entertainment could deliver revenue upside. However, the contributions from Lazada and Youku, as well as continued heavy investing in Tmall Supermarket and local services should weigh on margins. We estimate continued triple-digit growth for Cloud Computing. While modestly lowering our revenue, we are raising our EPS estimates to better reflect Alibaba’s cost structure and non-cash expenses.”
As usual, we like to include the analyst’s trackrecord when reporting on new analyst notes. According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Kerry Rice has a yearly average return of 6% and a 56% success rate. Rice has a 25.1% average return when recommending BABA, and is ranked #561 out of 4180 analysts.
Out of the 28 analysts polled by TipRanks, 26 rate Alibaba stock a Buy, while 2 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 8%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $112.74.