Evercore analyst John Scotti provides investors with a more accurate picture of how Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) U.S. HCV sales look now that the third-quarter is over. The analyst rates GILD a Buy with a $90 price target.
“Harvoni IMS quarterly volumes appear to have stabilized (both TRx and NRx scripts were fairly flat Aug & Sept) while Epclusa has demonstrated a steady growth trajectory since its June launch and appears to have proportionally taken share from Sovaldi,” Scotti said
The analyst points out that his IMS scripts math implies potential 3Q US HCV net sales of ~$1.95B vs consensus of ~$2.12B. However, when comparing against consensus estimates, VA scripts are not recorded by IMS.
Scotti notes, “It is difficult to correct for this limitation in the scripts “capture rate” (a parameter in our model that predicts sales based on scripts), so one way of thinking about it is to add back potential sales to the VA. Recall, GILD has mentioned that in 1Q they started to see a large uptick in VA in the middle of that quarter, and another large addition of patients from the VA in the 2Q.”
“our model compares an aggregate of all 3 of GILD’s HCV products versus consensus, as consensus tends to be more variable for individual products. Using this logic, if we assume (1) that Sovaldi scripts continue to decline at approximately the same rate, (2) Harvoni volume stabilization, and (3) moderate growth in Epclusa, it looks like US HCV consensus sales for 3Q and for 2017 (~$8.5B) are possible. However, we will need to see 3Q actuals and listen for color on pricing, as our assumptions do not bake in further increases in discounting,” the analyst concludes.
Shares of Gilead Sciences are currently trading at $3.17, up $0.14 or 0.18%.
Out of the 16 analysts polled by TipRanks (in the past 3 months), 8 rate Gilead stock a Buy, while 8 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 39%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $101.46.