September was full of important macroeconomic data and central bank meetings. We thought that October would be a calmer month, but concerns aboutand the recent signal that we are not likely to get bored. And the U.S. presidential election is just one month away and could also cause some turmoil in the gold market. We examine thoroughly the impact of elections on gold in the latest edition of the Market Overview – here we would like to update investors with the latest state of the race to the White House, as there is only one month left before the U.S. presidential election. What are the current odds of both candidates and what do they mean for the gold market?
According to, 48.1 percent of voters are in favor of , 3.8 percentage points more than in favor of . It’s not easy to say whether the rise in Clinton’s odds is the outcome of the (believed to be won by Clinton) or Trump’s revealed tax returns. As a reminder, New York Times obtained records from 1995 which show that Trump declared $916 million in losses. The whole issue is probably a bit overblown, since losses happen and there is nothing illegal or bad in carrying them forward. The problem is that Trump did not reveal his tax returns, cited an audit by the Internal Revenue Service as an excuse.
Another negative piece of news for Trump (however, the revealed tax returns do not have to harm his odds, there are even opinions that Trump leaked them himself) may be the disappointment from Wikileaks, since there had been widespread anticipation that Assange’s Tuesday press conference might bring documents damaging for Clinton. Instead, the date of the release was postponed – they would come before the end of the year.
On the other hand, on Tuesday there was a vice-presidential debate between Tim Kaine and Mike Pence. According to both polls and analysts, Pence, who is the running mate of Donald Trump, won the debate, which could boost their campaign.
Summing up, little has changed in the last month. Clinton is still the leader of the race. Actually, her advantage over her rival grew about one percentage point. Such a result falsifies our bet that the next polls could bring a rise in Trump’s odds. However, there are two more presidential debates and a lot may change in the coming weeks. Given the case of Brexit, investor should remember that final results may be much closer than the polling odds suggest. If the results surprise the market, the price of gold may increase, at least for a while.