H.C. Wainwright top analyst Andrew Fein provides a closer glimpse into ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) after meeting with management earlier in the week to discuss the firm’s pipeline drug NUPLAZID, approved by the FDA to treat hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson’s disease psychosis.
Subsequently, the analyst reiterates a Buy rating on ACAD with a price target of $60, which represents a nearly 70% increase from where the shares last closed.
In the meeting, Fein reviewed with ACAD management the ongoing sampling program for the pipeline drug and its resultant impact upon near-term revenue (which the analyst deems an ill-advised “metric for success of the launch”), as currently two “avenues” exist to provide patients access to sample refills. Additionally, Fein delved into prospective discussions regarding NUPLAZID launch metrics with the Street. Third, the analyst examined both timing coupled with details on room for expansion in the development of the drug.
The analyst believes, “To address the limited visibility that the Street has on the launch (even as the drug is placed on formulary, no IMS or Symphony data will be available), we anticipate that management will provide metrics to indicate how the launch is progressing toward the middle of 2017 (which we anticipate will lead to a tightening of consensus for 2H17).”
“In the interim, we turn our attention to expansion of the company’s pipeline with the initiation of a Phase 2 study in AD-agitation (AD-A) and announcement of additional trials by year end. We anticipate each additional study will likely represent a sizeable trial representing a proof of concept study rather than exploratory, providing breadth to the company’s pipeline and additional optionality to the stock (we base our valuation only on PDP at this time),” Fein concludes.
As usual, we like to include the analyst’s track record when reporting on new analyst notes to give a perspective on the effect it has on stock performance. According to TipRanks, top five-star analyst Andrew Fein has achieved a high ranking of #100 out of 4,189 analysts. Fein upholds a 55% success rating and realizes 18.6% in his yearly returns. However, when recommending ACAD, Fein faces a loss of 4.5% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics demonstrate ACAD as a Strong Buy. Based on 8 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 7 rate a Buy on ACAD, while 1 maintains a Hold. The consensus price target stands at $47.14, marking a 35% upside from where the stock is currently trading.