Chris Ciovacco

About the Author Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets? Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities. Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): Levels Of Note

What Once Was Resistance

Given the market’s near addiction to low interest rates and recent price action, it is helpful to get some guideposts based on the expression:

“What once was resistance may now act as possible support.”

The expression above includes two key words: “may” and “possible”, meaning there is no market law bounding price to act in any particular manner at any particular level. However, we know markets often retest breakout levels or areas of past resistance.

S&P 500 Weekly

Weekly charts can help us zero in on the most important levels. The weekly chart of the S&P 500 below shows, prior to the recent bullish breakout, sellers became more active between 2,096 and 2,122. If those levels are taken out on a weekly basis, our concerns would increase with a weekly close below the Brexit low of 2,037.

Weekly charts print only one price each week. Therefore, intraweek moves are not as relevant as the close for the week.

SPY Weekly

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) below shows, prior to the recent bullish breakout, sellers became more active between 207.46 and 209.15. If those levels are taken out on a weekly basis, our concerns would increase with a weekly close below 202.91.

Prudent To Respect All Outcomes

While the longer-term outlook has not deteriorated in a significant manner yet, as outlined on September 9and September 12, recent volatility and the near-term economic calendar tell us to respect any and all outcomes. With two economic reports (PPI and CPI) related to inflation on this week’s docket, the market will be watching closely. If there is one thing that can force the Fed’s hand on interest rates, it is a surprising pop in inflation. Our ETF scoring system tells us our positions are a bit more vulnerable, but the facts have only moved into a “pay closer attention” zone at this time.