Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski came away from meeting Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), on Friday morning impressed with his passion for his role and his steady leadership in guiding the banking giant. On the heels of addressing main topics during the meeting, including concerns over Brexit’s looming aftereffect on the company, the analyst reiterates a Perform rating on JPM without listing a price target.
First, Kotowski asked about the credit cycle considering seven years have passed when the last recession hit. Dimon answered positively, with Kotowski assessing, “Banking is still a cyclical industry, and NCOs would likely go up, but it’s ‘recession driven” and “we don’t see it happening now.'”
Second, Kotowski discussed with Dimon the impact of regulation and “operational” RWAs and how they would affect banks as well as our economy. Dimon responded comparing the situation to newspapers in a post-Internet world, explaining “that for the most part losses ‘generally go up in a predictable way.”
Third, the analyst inquired as to the cyclical and secular pressures building on investment banks, with special attention to FICC trading. Regarding Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), Kotowski observed Dimon took immense pride in highlighting that even in the midst of the most recent CCAR stress test “in a severely adverse scenario” indicating an estimated loss greater than pretax $30B for the nine-quarter planning cycle, JPM still garnered $25B of net income, which the analyst notes occurred “during a similar time-frame of the Great Recession.”
In relation to a rising competitive atmosphere for the credit card business, Kotowski questions whether “the weight of ‘operational’ RWAs […] tilted the balance away from universal banks and toward smaller companies?”
While Dimon completely recognizes these concerns as legitimate, considering “The op risk charges were certainly a substantial drag on returns and had likely constrained bank lending and economic growth,” he waits to see whether “‘it stands the tests of time’ in the decade ahead and that he ‘won’t wreck the franchise’ in the meantime.”
According to TipRanks, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, five-star analyst Chris Kotowski is ranked #362 out of 4,143 analysts. Kotowski has a 64% success rate and realizes 3.3% in his yearly returns. When recommending JPM, Kotowski gains 9.2% in average profits on the stock.
TipRanks analytics demonstrate JPM as a Buy. Based on 18 analysts polled in the last 3 months, 12 rate a Buy on JPM, 5 maintain a Hold, while 1 issues a Sell. The consensus price target stands at $70, marking a 4% upside from where the stock is currently trading.