In the past week, Mast Therapeutics Inc (NYSEMKT:MSTX) stock has seen a price increase from $0.40 to $0.65, along with a significant volume boost. On back of this, Maxim analyst Jason McCarthy is out with a research note speculating on the three possible variables that might have led to this price movement.

First, the analyst points to this coming month, where phase III trial results are expected for vepoloxamer, the biotech firm’s investigational drug designed to minimize sickle cell disease effects. McCarthy stresses, “Recall that the EPIC study was the largest-ever placebocontrolled study in sickle cell disease (SCD).” Especially considering that there has yet to be a treatment approved for pain crisis, the results are highly anticipated.

Second, McCarthy underscores that yesterday, MSTX joined the American Society of Hematology (ASH)’s¬†new sickle cell disease coalition to tackle SCD therapeutic challenges and raise awareness.

Third, McCarthy notes the biotech firm is gearing to host its 5th Annual Sickle Cell Therapeutics Conference in New York City tomorrow, which will include companies on the brink of creating new therapies coupled with patient/physician discussions and panels.

“Pivotal data arrive this month. We have a positive bias for a favorable outcome given the clinical history (prior P3) and design of the current pivotal trial. If approved, vepoloxamer would be only the second drug ever approved for sickle cell and the only drug approved to directly treat pain crisis, the most common manifestation of the disease,” he concludes.

Ultimately, McCarthy sees “Mast as undervalued even with a ‘modest’ increase in valuation to ~$150M,” reiterating a Buy rating with a price target of $5.00, which represents a 668% increase from where the stock is currently trading.

As usual, we recommend taking analyst notes with a grain of salt. According to TipRanks, one-star analyst Jason McCarthy is ranked #3,318 out of 4,147 analysts. McCarthy has a 36% success rate and faces a loss of 1.4% in his annual returns. However, when recommending MSTX, McCarthy earns 55.9% in average profits on the stock.

TipRanks analytics demonstrate MSTX as a Strong Buy. 100% of analysts polled in the last 3 months rate a Buy on MSTX. The 12-month average price target stands at $3.33, marking a 412% upside from where the shares last closed.Screen Shot 09-07-16 at 04.58 PM