In a research report issued this morning, Needham analyst Alan Carr weighed in on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD), after the drug maker released its second-quarter financial results, posting $97,000 in Nuplazid sales, compared to Carr’s $0.5M and consensus $0.1M estimates. As a result, the analyst reduced his 3Q16 and 2016 Nuplazid estimates to $3.0M (from $6.0M) and $13.1M (from $21.5M), respectively.
Carr wrote, “Mgmt reported that extensive use of sampling programs significantly impacted sales. We expect this to continue into 3Q16 and have adjusted our estimates for 2016 accordingly. Nevertheless, mgmt reported positive anecdotal response from physicians and caregivers and noted launch is meeting internal expectations. Nuplazid was launched 5/31/16 for the treatment of Parkinson’s Disease Psychosis (PDP). Our peak U.S. sales estimate in PDP is unchanged (up to ~$1B). Mgmt guided for top-line results from Phase 2 Alzheimer’s Disease Psychosis (ADP) trial in 4Q16 (unch). A positive outcome may subsequently drive offlabel use in this and several other dementia-related psychoses.”
The analyst reiterated a Buy rating on ACAD with a price target of $49, which implies an upside of 34% from current levels.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Alan Carr has a yearly average return of 11% and a 49% success rate. Carr has a 33.9% average return when recommending ACAD, and is ranked #213 out of 4090 analysts.
Out of the 12 analysts polled by TipRanks, 10 rate ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock a Buy, while 2 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 45%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $53.