Despite across the board declines in estimates for Apple throughout Wall Street, the analyst still believes that expectations for the fourth quarter of 2016 and F2017 are too high for the technology giant.
Consensus guidance has revenues and EPS for the fourth quarter at $46.3 billion and $1.64 respectively. The analyst believes this is too optimistic and expects Apple to report revenues of $43.4 billion and EPS of $1.47.
In the short term Power is concerned about a lengthening upgrade cycle, questions about the iPhone 7 and a stronger dollar, which raises the price of Apple’s products for international customers. The analyst anticipates a stronger dollar will pull back revenues with two-thirds of Apple’s revenue coming from outside the U.S. Power also writes that he expects iPhone shipments to decline 2.3% YOY in 2017, in part because of record-low upgrade rates.
The analyst has a more positive long-term outlook for Apple. He expects Apple to receive “long-term eco-system benefits, with potential upside from any new products.” He also believes that the assumed revolutionary iPhone 8 has the potential to be a major catalyst for growth with 60% of iPhone users currently having a phone that is 2+ years old.
According to TipRanks, the analyst has a yearly average return of 2.6% and a 53% success rate. The analyst has a 15.2% average return when recommending Apple, and is ranked #1,212 out of 4,073 analysts.
TipRanks shows that out of the 39 analysts who rated Apple in the last 3 months, 85% gave a Buy rating, 13% gave a Hold rating and 2% gave a Sell rating. The average 12-month price target for the stock is $123.76, marking a 23.81% upside from current levels.