With video-streaming giant Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) set to release second-quarter earnings today, July 18th, RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney provides a reassuring preview. Following a rocky first quarter of estimates that fell short, the analyst believes Netflix is now poised to make a solid comeback.
While Mahaney’s anticipated revenue for Netflix at $2.11B and earnings per share estimates of $0.02 do rank faintly under the Street’s calls, there is barely a perceptible notice. Mahaney hopes for 500K additions in Domestic Streaming Subscription as well as two million additions internationally in the second quarter. Compare that to the Street’s prediction for 532K and 2.1MM; not that different, and therefore, Mahaney finds these estimates fair. However, for third quarter, Maheny believes that the ” Street’s outlook for close to 800K Domestic Sub Ads and 2.85MM Intl Sub Adds are ballpark possible, but not easily achievable.”
After April’s disappointing results, Mahaney held an investor meeting with Netflix back in May, which has since impacted the analyst’s hopes for a long-term rebounded rise. In addition, recent analysis reveals Netflix movie and television usage match that YouTube while still dominating Amazon; with Netflix’s rapid growth eclipsing that of competitors, per a two-year basis.
Meanwhile, the analyst notes that from a rising international on-demand standpoint, users from countries like France and Germany are proven to be “extremely” or “very” inclined to invest in streaming content. Netflix’s new user audience in the U.S. is also on the upswing, having increased 22%. With both domestic and international audience developments coupled with new deals with Comcast and a multi-year alliance with The CW, Mahaney backs his stamp of approval for Netflix’s long-term gains.
For these reasons, the analyst asserts, “We believe that Netflix has achieved a level of sustainable scale, growth, and profitability that isn’t currently reflected in its stock price;” especially considering Netflix’s collective domestic and abroad subscriber bases. With 82 million cumulative subscribers, when it comes to subscriptions, Netflix still leads as a universal titan in the realm of entertainment capital.
Mahaney continues, “We also view Netflix as one of the best derivatives off the strong growth in online video viewing and in Internet- connected devices (tablets, smartphones, Internet TVs), … tracking significantly improved customer satisfaction levels.” With a positive outlook on Netflix’s lucrative potential, the analyst regards “the steady expansion in U.S. contribution margins” along “with its fixed cost content nature and historically declining churn rates” as an indication of future development and expansion.
Mahaney reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock with a price target of $140.00.
As usual, we like to include the analyst’s track record when reporting on new analyst notes to give a perspective on the effect it has on stock performance. Mahaney is ranked #6 out of 4,060 analysts on TipRanks, with a 65% success rate and an average return of 20%.
According to TipRanks, 60% of analysts rate Netflix a Buy, while 30% rate the stock a Hold, and 10% rate the stock a sell. The average price target for the stock is close to $144.00 with a 46% upside.