FBR analyst Barton Crockett offers an overview of what to expect from streaming video giant Netflix, Inc.(NASDAQ:NFLX) ahead of its second-quarter earnings on Monday, July 18. The analyst raises his 2016E EPS estimate from $0.05 to $0.31 (slightly above consensus), and 2017E estimate from $0.34 to $1.64. However, the analyst believes that greater caution is warranted from the evidence of saturation in developed countries and growing macro risks globally.

Crockett wrote, “We update our post-2Q16 estimates to assume Netflix can perform in line with the midpoint of its 10-Q projection of 10%–20% domestic and international ARPU growth by year-end (versus 1Q16), tied to rate hikes/ending grandfather periods. While that boosts our long-term earnings estimates, our check of Google search volumes for Netflix globally suggests a saturation issue—that, in the U.S., and in other developed countries where Netflix has been present for a few years or more, interest has plateaued, or may be dipping. This is cautionary for sub growth at a time when Netflix, we doubt, has the leverage to repeat this year’s rate hikes next year, due to improving alternatives (Amazon Prime and TV Everywhere, in particular) and Netflix’s status as a complement to pay TV subscriptions, rather than a replacement. This, to us, suggests slowing growth potential that keeps us from raising our price target, despite an ARPU-driven lift to earnings estimates.”

Crockett reiterated a Market Perform rating on shares of Netflix, with a price target of $104, which represents a potential upside of 6% from where the stock is currently trading.

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Barton Crockett has a yearly average return of 7.5% and a 61% success rate. Crockett has a 12% average return when recommending NFLX, and is ranked #305 out of 4060 analysts.

Out of the 41 analysts polled by TipRanks, 25 rate Netflix stock a Buy, 13 rate the stock a Hold and 3 recommend a Sell. With a return potential of 43%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $139.89.