Brexit has enormous potential for affecting the cross-border business relations. Cantor analyst Youssef Squali sees the Brexit decision as having a negative short-term impact on the Internet group in general, mainly driven by F/X volatility, and potentially longer-term as well, if the UK and other European economies are pushed into stagnation or worse yet, recession. As such, the analyst recommends investors to focus on higher-quality stocks, namely Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL).
Given the weakness of the GBP and the euro, the analyst believes that the chances for more M&A on the part of US companies may go up, driven by their large cash positions and desire to expand further. Squali noted that Facebook, Amazon and Google (among others) have all made acquisitions in Europe in the past, and the current environment is likely to encourage that further.
Youssef Squali is one of the top analysts on Wall Street covering Internet and New Media sector. His picks average a 14% one-year return, and he’s ranked in the top 5 percent of all analysts, according to TipRanks.com.
Squali reiterated a Buy rating on shares of social giant Facebook, with a price target of $150, which implies an upside of 31% from current levels.
Squali noted, “For 2Q, a 15bp increase in a basket of currencies vs. the USD should result in slight revenue tailwind of $4.8 million, but no meaningful impact on EPS (FactSet consensus is $5.999B/$0.81 for rev./EPS). For 2H:16, we expect F/X to be a 130bp hit to top line growth, reflecting a weaker GBP partially offset by a stronger Yen, resulting in a headwind of $106M/$0.02 to revenues/EPS (consensus at $26.056B/$3.55).”
Out of the 38 analysts polled by TipRanks (in the past 3 months), 36 rate Facebook stock a Buy, while 2 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 27.59%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $145.81.
Squali also reiterated a Buy rating on shares of e-commerce giant Amazon, with an $800 price target, which implies an upside of 12% from current levels.
The analyst stated, “A 40bp decline in the USD vs. a basket of currencies from what we believe is assumed in mgt’s 2Q:16 guidance should result in revenue tailwind of ~$105M, and less than a penny impact on EPS (FactSet consensus is $29.54B/$1.09 for rev./EPS vs. our $29.09B/$0.86 estimates). On a Y/Y basis, F/X should result in a 100bps contribution to top line growth, relatively in line with mgt’s assumption for a 70bps tailwind. For 2H:16, our forecast (using prevailing rates) yields an incremental headwind of $369M/~ $0.02 to revenues/EPS (2016 FactSet consensus is $134.109B/$5.55), with AMZN’s exposure to a rising Japanese Yen (~8% of revs) helping temper the GBP/Euro weakness.”
The overwhelmingly majority of experts still say Amazon is a Buy. The average forecast is for the stock to hit $792 in the coming months, according to data compiled by TipRanks, a site that tracks and ranks analysts on their predictions.
Finally, Squali reiterated a Buy rating on internet giant Alphabet, with a price target of $940, which represents a potential upside of 34% from where the stock is currently trading.
Squali wrote, “For 2Q, a 22bp increase in a basket of currencies vs. the USD should result in slight revenue tailwind of $19.4M, and $0.01 impact on EPS (FactSet consensus is $16.854B/$8.05 for rev./EPS). For 2H:16, we expect F/X to be a 150bp hit to top line growth, reflecting a weaker GBP, partially offset by a stronger yen, resulting in a headwind of $287M/$0.18 to revenues/EPS vs. FactSet consensus at $70.852B/ $33.51. That said, we think GOOGL’s hedging program could offset much of this impact.”
According to TipRanks’ data, 34 out of 35 analysts who cover Alphabet stock rate it as a Buy, while only one rates it a Hold. The 12-month month price objective on the stock is $907.91, which represents upside potential of 29% based on current stock price.