Huxley is widely viewed as a prophetic genius for his accurate predictions of a dystopian future ruled by ten “World Controllers” dominated by technology. While our post Brexit technical work has not proved nearly as prescient, let’s not reach for that Soma just yet. As I revisit the charts across asset classes there remains a conflicting mix of encouragement and concern.
On the positive front, while the Dollar has surged against Euro, Sterling and Yuan; Commodity Currencies such as Real and Ruble have firmed along with commodities themselves, with Nat Gas approaching $3, Crude hanging around $50, and Copper eclipsing pre-Brexit highs. Conversely, our salient safe havens (Yen, Yields and Gold) have not responded with the vigor one might expect given the surge in risk assets.
Gold remains in an outstanding technical position for a run at 1,400; Yields in the US continue to flirt with all-time lows while Bunds (-12bps) and JGB’s (-23bps) continue their descent into the abyss; and both Yen and Nikkei have gone virtually nowhere on the bounce.
Moreover, while signs of stabilisation are encouraging in Europe, the bounce in beleaguered banks has been largely benign and the technicals remain in grave danger of breaking to new all-time lows. For now the 13% collapse and 6% 2 day bounce in the FTSE 250 shares a stark symmetry with last August’s 11% collapse in the S&P and 6% 2 day bounce; and should history repeat itself we should expect another month of heightened volatility and sideways chop with a possible retest of the lows. In sum, I am open minded, but reticent to rush to judgment right here either way